New flash estimates of poverty risk published by the European Commission

The European Commission has published new flash estimates of poverty and income inequality across the European Union.

The flash estimates of poverty and income distribution in 2017 mainly use EUROMOD the tax-benefit microsimulation model and employ related tools and methods developed at the University of Essex. Microsimulation routines using the EUROMOD model and running on adjusted EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data from earlier years form the basis of the flash estimates in most countries.

Providing timelier social statistics – especially indicators on income poverty and inequality – is a priority for the Commission and the European Statistical System.

“In order to better monitor the effectiveness of social policies at EU level, it is important to have timelier indicators.

Therefore, flash estimates, released much earlier than the final data, have been developed. These can be used in preliminary discussions and analyses until the final data become available.”

Whilst the flash estimates are calculated and produced by Eurostat with the cooperation of National Statistical Institutes, the methodology behind the statistics draws heavily on pioneering work done at Essex to “nowcast” income distributions and poverty rates using EUROMOD, including techniques to statistically adjust older EU-SILC data to reflect changes in the labour market and to the level of market incomes since the data were collected, combined with the simulation of the latest tax-benefit policies.

Read the Flash Estimates here